Fluctuation behavior analysis of international crude oil and gasoline price based on complex network perspective

被引：67

作者：

Wang, Minggang ^{[1
,2
]}

Chen, Ying ^{[3
]}

Tian, Lixin ^{[1
,3
]}

Jiang, Shumin ^{[3
]}

Tian, Zihao ^{[4
]}

Du, Ruijin ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing 210042, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[2] Nanjing Normal Univ, Dept Math, Taizhou Coll, Taizhou 225300, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[3] Jiangsu Univ, Energy Dev & Environm Protect Strategy Res Ctr, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[4] Nanjing Univ Aeronaut & Astronaut, Coll Econ & Management, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

来源：

APPLIED ENERGY | 2016年 / 175卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Crude oil price; Gasoline price; Complex network; Dynamic characteristics; TRADE RELATIONSHIPS; ENERGY PRICES; EVOLUTION; FUTURES; DYNAMICS; PATTERNS; FEATURES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.013

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

The directed weighted networks of international crude oil and gasoline price were built in the different fluctuation periods. And then the evolution law of the new nodes in the prices networks was analyzed. The results indicated that the cumulative times of the new nodes that appeared in the crude oil and gasoline prices networks were not random but exhibited a high linear growth trend, which revealed the linear characteristics of the accumulation time of abnormal points that appeared in the process of oil price fluctuations. Based on the node strength, the calculation formula of the network similarity between the crude oil and gasoline price networks was designed, and the interdependence between the crude oil and gasoline price fluctuations was calculated, the results indicated that there was a strong interdependence between crude oil and gasoline prices in stable fluctuation periods, but the degree of dependence was significantly reduced in sharp fluctuation periods. The strength of nodes and their strength distribution, weighted clustering coefficient, and average shortest paths of the price network in different periods were calculated. The fluctuation characteristics in different periods were comparatively analyzed. The core fluctuation status and the conversion relationship between them in different periods were revealed. Finally, the important modes of price fluctuations of crude oil and gasoline were identified and the distribution characteristics of the time these modes appeared were studied. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：109 / 127

页数：19

共 30 条

[1] Research on patterns in the fluctuation of the co-movement between crude oil futures and spot prices: A complex network approach [J].

An, Haizhong ;

Gao, Xiangyun ;

Fang, Wei ;

Ding, Yinghui ;

Zhong, Weiqiong .

APPLIED ENERGY, 2014, 136 :1067-1075

[2] Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis [J].

An, Haizhong ;

Zhong, Weiqiong ;

Chen, Yurong ;

Li, Huajiao ;

Gao, Xiangyun .

ENERGY, 2014, 74 :254-259

[3] The role of fluctuating modes of autocorrelation in crude oil prices [J].

An, Haizhong ;

Gao, Xiangyun ;

Fang, Wei ;

Huang, Xuan ;

Ding, Yinghui .

PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2014, 393 :382-390

[4] Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices [J].

Atil, Ahmed ;

Lahiani, Amine ;

Duc Khuong Nguyen .

ENERGY POLICY, 2014, 65 :567-573

[5]

Barabási AL, 2003, HANDBOOK OF GRAPHS AND NETWORKS: FROM THE GENOME TO THE INTERNET, P69

[6] Emergence of scaling in random networks [J].

Barabási, AL ;

Albert, R .

SCIENCE, 1999, 286 (5439) :509-512

[7] Exploiting the errors: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting [J].

Bollerslev, Tim ;

Patton, Andrew J. ;

Quaedvlieg, Rogier .

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 2016, 192 (01) :1-18

[8] Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model [J].

Chai, Jian ;

Guo, Ju-E ;

Meng, Lei ;

Wang, Shou-Yang .

ENERGY POLICY, 2011, 39 (12) :8022-8036

[9] Dynamic analysis on the topological properties of the complex network of international oil prices [J].

Chen Wei-Dong ;

Xu Hua ;

Guo Qi .

ACTA PHYSICA SINICA, 2010, 59 (07) :4514-4523

[10] Evolutionary Neural Network model for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price prediction [J].

Chiroma, Haruna ;

Abdulkareem, Sameem ;

Herawan, Tutut .

APPLIED ENERGY, 2015, 142 :266-273

← 1 2 3 →