Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

被引：262

作者：

Clark, S ^{[1
]}

Watling, D ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Leeds, Inst Transport Studies, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

来源：

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART B-METHODOLOGICAL | 2005年 / 39卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/j.trb.2003.10.006

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：119 / 140

页数：22

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