Trends in COVID-19 Risk-Adjusted Mortality Rates

被引:159
作者
Horwitz, Leora, I [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Jones, Simon A. [1 ,2 ]
Cerfolio, Robert J. [4 ]
Francois, Fritz [3 ]
Greco, Joseph [5 ]
Rudy, Bret [6 ]
Petrilli, Christopher M. [3 ]
机构
[1] NYU Langone Hlth, Ctr Healthcare Innovat & Delivery Sci, New York, NY 10016 USA
[2] NYU, Dept Populat Hlth, Grossman Sch Med, New York, NY 10003 USA
[3] NYU, Dept Med, Grossman Sch Med, New York, NY 10003 USA
[4] NYU, Dept Surg, Grossman Sch Med, New York, NY USA
[5] NYU, Winthrop Hosp, New York, NY USA
[6] NYU, Dept Pediat, Grossman Sch Med, New York, NY USA
关键词
D O I
10.12788/jhm.3552
中图分类号
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要
Early reports showed high mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Mortality rates have recently been lower, raising hope that treatments have improved. However, patients are also now younger, with fewer comorbidities. We explored whether hospital mortality was associated with changing demographics at a 3-hospital academic health system in New York. We examined in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice from March through August 2020, adjusted for demographic and clinical factors, including comorbidities, admission vital signs, and laboratory results. Among 5,121 hospitalizations, adjusted mortality dropped from 25.6% (95% CI, 23.2-28.1) in March to 7.6% (95% CI, 2.5-17.8) in August. The standardized mortality ratio dropped from 1.26 (95% CI, 1.15-1.39) in March to 0.38 (95% CI, 0.12-0.88) in August, at which time the average probability of death (average marginal effect) was 18.2 percentage points lower than in March. Data from one health system suggest that mortality from COVID-19 is decreasing even after accounting for patient characteristics. (C) 2021 Society of Hospital Medicine
引用
收藏
页码:90 / 92
页数:3
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