Effects of bio-physical, economic and ecological policy on forest transition for sustainability of resource and socioeconomics development

Forest transition is a product of the interaction among bio-physical characteristics, economic development, and ecological policies. Research on the process and the factors for forest transitions is important for resource protection and socioeconomic sustainability. In this paper, based on Landsat TM data and socio-economic panel data, we examined the dynamics and the spatial determinants of forest transition at the county level on the Loess Plateau (China) using spatial econometric regression models for a 15-year period (2000-2015). We reached the following conclusions: (1) Arable land, Grassland, and Forest land were the dominant land use types. The forested area increased 3262.41 ha from 2000 to 2015, and the increased land was primarily due to the conversion from arable land. (2) The global Moran's I value was greater than 0.3 for the entire 15 years, and the proportion of positive and negative values were larger than 0 for the local Moran's I values, which indicated that the spatial correlation were positive, and thus the spatial autocorrelation should be considered in quantitative analysis of the factors that influence forest transition. (3) The most suitable model for estimating the forested area for empirical analysis and interpretation was the spatial lag model with fixed effects. The forested area was primarily significantly positively correlated with the average annual rainfall and the per capita gross domestic product (significance level 1%). Ecological restoration project also positively affected the forested area, but was not significant. Based on the conclusion, we recommend creating policies for ecological environmental sustainability that were harmonious with economic development in Western China. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.