Development and assessment of renewable energy policy scenarios by 2030 for Bulgaria

The Bulgarian target for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by year 2020 is to achieve 16% share of energy from RES in gross final energy consumption. The so far recorded data show that the country will exceed it. The question that emerges is what new RES target the country can set up for the following decade up to 2030. This target needs to be in consistency with the obligations of Bulgaria as an EU member state for the 2030 framework for climate and energy policies, but also with its national priorities and needs. This paper aims to identify the most feasible level of ambition up to year 2030 for the Bulgarian renewable energy policy taking into consideration the national framework. Two research tools are used for this purpose, the modeling tool LEAP and the multi-criteria evaluation method AMS. LEAP simulates three developed scenarios aiming to different RES targets for 2030 supported by different policy mixtures. LEAP outcomes and official information are used as inputs to AMS. The AMS outputs allow the identification of the most appropriate scenario for the country. Conclusions concern under which conditions each policy mixture is feasible along with discussion on policy recommendations for its improvement. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.