Analysis on the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue and larval infestation in the municipality of Tupa, State of Sao Paulo

Introduction: The dengue virus is transmitted by the bite of the mosquito Aedes aegypti and the current control program has not met the target of preventing its transmission. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue cases and the larval indices in the municipality of Tupa between January 2004 and December 2007. Methods: Larval indices were built up block by block and for the entire municipality. We used the cross-lagged correlation method to assess the correlation between dengue cases and larval indices. The kernel estimator was used for spatial analysis. Results: The cross-lagged correlation between dengue cases and larval indices was significant. The kernel estimator maps of positive findings among recipients indicated heterogeneous distribution over the course of the study period. Over two years of transmission, the epidemic occurred in different regions. Conclusions: There was no evidence of a relationship between larval infestation and dengue occurrence. Incorporation of geoprocessing techniques and spatial analysis into the program, if used immediately after completion of activities, might contribute towards the control actions, thereby indicating spatial agglomerations of higher incidence.