Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?

An effective budgetary process requires accurate forecasts of future economic activity. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented here which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the enhanced EU fiscal framework. Forecasts of output growth are unduly pessimistic, irrational, and influenced by recent economic activity. The article considers the reasons for and implications of such biases and proposes improvements to forecasting processes that could address these issues. (C) 2020 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.