The Spatial Patterning of Alcohol Outlets in Post-Disaster Christchurch, New Zealand: Practical and Policy Implications

Natural disasters greatly impact the environment of affected societies with often unknown consequences. In this study we examine the impact that the Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010-2011 had on the distribution of alcohol outlets in Christchurch, New Zealand. Specifically, we compare the distribution of both on-site and off-site alcohol outlets pre- (December 2009) and post-earthquake (December 2014) and use spatial regression models to identify whether any neighbourhood-level factors predict the observed redistributions. Overall, the number of alcohol outlets decreased by almost 13% after the Canterbury Earthquakes. However, we found a moderate increase in the clustering of both outlet types of outlets in the post-quake period. Increases in rates of both on-site and off-site alcohol outlets in neighbourhoods were positively associated with the percentage of residents who resided in their neighbourhood<5years and with neighbourhood crime rate change, while negative associations were found with percentage population aged between 15 and 29years. The results suggest that the changing spatial distribution of alcohol outlets in Christchurch was not random but driven, in part, by the emergent demographic composition of neighbourhoods. The significant practical and policy implications of a redistribution of alcohol outlets are outlined providing a tangible link between empirical research and practice in an urban environment plagued with post-disaster spatial and social uncertainties.