A valid and reliable belief elicitation method for Bayesian priors

被引:56
作者
Johnson, Sindhu R. [1 ,2 ]
Tomlinson, George A. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Hawker, Gillian A. [2 ,5 ]
Granton, John T. [6 ,7 ]
Grosbein, Haddas A. [8 ]
Feldman, Brian M. [2 ,3 ,8 ]
机构
[1] Toronto Western Hosp, Div Rheumatol, Dept Med, Univ Hlth Network, Toronto, ON M5T 2S8, Canada
[2] Univ Toronto, Dept Hlth Policy Management & Evaluat, Toronto, ON, Canada
[3] Univ Toronto, Dalla Lana Sch Publ Hlth, Toronto, ON, Canada
[4] Toronto Gen Res Inst, Div Clin Decis Making & Hlth Care, Toronto, ON, Canada
[5] Womens Coll Hosp, Dept Med, Div Rheumatol, Toronto, ON M5S 1B2, Canada
[6] Toronto Gen Hosp, Dept Med, Div Respirol, Toronto, ON M5G 1L7, Canada
[7] Toronto Gen Hosp, Dept Med, Div Crit Care Med, Toronto, ON M5G 1L7, Canada
[8] Hosp Sick Children, Dept Pediat, Div Rheumatol, Toronto, ON M5G 1X8, Canada
基金
加拿大健康研究院;
关键词
Belief elicitation; Bayesian; Validity; Reliability; Priors; Pulmonary hypertension; PRIMARY PULMONARY-HYPERTENSION; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL; CLINICAL-TRIALS; PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTIONS; THERAPY; HEALTH; ANTICOAGULATION; RELIABILITY; INFERENCE; SURVIVAL;
D O I
10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.08.005
中图分类号
R19 [保健组织与事业(卫生事业管理)];
学科分类号
摘要
Objective: Bayesian inference has the advantage of formally incorporating prior beliefs about the effect of an intervention into analyses of treatment effect through the use of prior probability distributions or "priors." Multiple methods to elicit beliefs from experts for inclusion in a Bayesian study have been used; however, the measurement properties of these methods have been infrequently evaluated. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the feasibility, validity, and reliability of a belief elicitation method for Bayesian priors. Study Design and Setting: A single-center, cross-sectional study using a sample of academic specialists who treat pulmonary hypertension patients was conducted to test the feasibility, face and construct validity, and reliability of a belief elicitation method. Using this method, participants expressed the probability of 3-year survival with and without warfarin. Applying adhesive dots or "chips," each representing 5% probability, in "bins" on a line, participants expressed their uncertainty and weight of belief about the effect of warfarin on 3-year survival. Results: Of the 12 participants, 11 (92%) reported that the belief elicitation method had face validity, 10 (83%) found the questions clear, and 11 (92%) found the response option easy to use. The median time to completion was 10 minutes (5-15 minutes). Internal validity testing found moderate agreement (weighted kappa = 0.54-0.57). The intraclass correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability was 0.93. Conclusion: This method of belief elicitation for Bayesian priors is feasible, valid, and reliable. It can be considered for application in Bayesian clinical studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:370 / 383
页数:14
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