Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK

被引：25

作者：

Harding, A. E. ^{[1
]}

Rivington, M. ^{[2
]}

Mineter, M. J. ^{[1
]}

Tett, S. F. B. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Edinburgh, Grant Inst, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Midlothian, Scotland

[2] James Hutton Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2015年 / 128卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

CHANGE IMPACTS; AGRICULTURE; SIMULATION; DROUGHT; SYSTEMS;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season.

引用

页码：113 / 126

页数：14

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