Managing the uncertainty of unknown risks

The UK industry is rethinking construction. At the heart of this rethinking must be the management of risk and uncertainty. Risk and opportunity are opposite sides of the same coin - good management can turn risk into opportunity. It follows that better management of risk can bring significant opportunities to add value to the construction team including the client. Two neglected areas of risk management are highlighted. The first is the need to integrate all types of specialist risk management procedures to provide 'whole' quality. The second is to develop ways of dealing with unexpected and unforeseen risks. Extensive research has demonstrated that few failures develop totally 'out of the blue' - there are always signs if we know how to look for them. Process modelling to identify the various aspects of 'whole' quality is introduced and a BCIOD + R (Business, Customer, Integrating, Operational, Delivery + Regulatory) classification presented. A prototype tool MARIUN (Managing Risk and Uncertainty) for identifying incubating pre-conditions to failure of a process is introduced. The purpose is to identify the patterns of information within a developing 'accident waiting to happen' so that decisions and action might be taken to remove the threat. As presently drafted MARIUN is concerned only with identifying hazardous risks - further work is needed to use it to identify opportunities.