Temperature dependence of variations in the end of the growing season from 1982 to 2012 on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

A growing number of studies have focused on variations in vegetation phenology and their correlations with climatic factors. However, there has been little research on changes in spatial heterogeneity with respect to the end of the growing season (EGS) and on responses to climate change for alpine vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the meteorological record from 1982 to 2012 were used to characterize the spatial pattern of variations in the EGS and their relationship to temperature and precipitation on the QTP. Over the entire study period, the EGS displayed no statistically significant trend; however, there was a strong spatial heterogeneity throughout the plateau. Those areas showing a delaying trend in the EGS were mainly distributed in the eastern part of the plateau, whereas those showing an advancing trend were mostly scattered throughout the western part. Our results also showed that change in the vegetation EGS was more closely correlated with air temperature than with precipitation. Nonetheless, the temperature sensitivity of the vegetation EGS became lower as aridity increased, suggesting that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of the vegetation EGS to climate warming. These results indicate spatial differences in key environmental influences on the vegetation EGS that must be taken into account in current phenological models, which are largely driven by temperature.