Spatiotemporal Evolution and the Influencing Factors of Tourism-Based Social-Ecological System Vulnerability in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

With the rapid development of global tourism, identifying the vulnerability of tourism-based social-ecological systems (SESs) has become an important topic in sustainable development research. This study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the vulnerability, spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, and influencing factors of tourism-based SESs in the counties of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). A comprehensive evaluation system containing 46 indicators was constructed using a model that combines a social-economic-ecological model and a pressure-state-response model (SEE-PSR). The entropy and composite index methods were used to calculate the vulnerability values of the indicators, and Geodetector was used to explore the factors influencing system vulnerability in the whole study area. The results showed the following: (1) The mean value of the composite vulnerability index of the TGRA from 2010 to 2018 was 0.4849, indicating a moderate vulnerability state. The system vulnerability of the study area gradually decreased from moderately high to moderately low. (2) There were obvious differences in the spatiotemporal evolution of vulnerability in different counties; high and moderately high vulnerability continued to decrease, moderately low and low vulnerability increased, and moderate vulnerability showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. Meanwhile, the relative differences in vulnerability among counties were small but gradually increasing. (3) System vulnerability was mainly caused by the social subsystem. Six factors, including the growth rate of the number of tourists and the amount of fiscal expenditure, were more likely to contribute to system vulnerability than other factors. The interaction types were mainly nonlinear enhancement types, supplemented by two-factor enhancement. This study presents an approach for evaluating the vulnerability of tourist destinations and constructing an evaluation index system. In this way, it has reference value for reducing regional vulnerability and promoting sustainable development.