All-cause mortality prediction models in type 2 diabetes: applicability in the early stage of disease

被引：2

作者：

Copetti, Massimiliano ^{[1
]}

Biancalana, Edoardo ^{[2
]}

Fontana, Andrea ^{[1
]}

Parolini, Federico ^{[2
]}

Garofolo, Monia ^{[2
]}

Lamacchia, Olga ^{[3
]}

De Cosmo, Salvatore ^{[4
]}

Trischitta, Vincenzo ^{[5
,6
]}

Solini, Anna ^{[7
]}

机构：

[1] Fdn IRCCS Casa Sollievo Sofferenza, Unit Biostat, Viale Padre Pio, I-71013 San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy

[2] Univ Pisa, Dept Clin & Expt Med, Pisa, Italy

[3] Univ Foggia, Dept Med & Surg Sci, Unit Endocrinol & Diabetol, Foggia, Italy

[4] Fdn IRCCS Casa Sollievo Sofferenza, Dept Clin Sci, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy

[5] Fdn IRCCS Casa Sollievo Sofferenza, Res Unit Diabet & Endocrine Dis, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy

[6] Sapienza Univ Rome, Dept Expt Med, Rome, Italy

[7] Univ Pisa, Dept Surg Med Mol & Crit Area Pathol, Pisa, Italy

来源：

ACTA DIABETOLOGICA | 2021年 / 58卷 / 10期

关键词：

Mortality; Prediction model; Type; 2; diabetes; Early stage; INDIVIDUAL PARTICIPANT DATA; RISK EQUATIONS; COMPLICATIONS; VALIDATION;

D O I：

10.1007/s00592-021-01746-2

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Aims The rate of all-cause mortality is twofold higher in type 2 diabetes than in the general population. Being able to identify patients with the highest risk from the very beginning of the disease would help tackle this burden. Methods We tested whether ENFORCE, an established prediction model of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes, performs well also in two independent samples of patients with early-stage disease prospectively followed up. Results ENFORCE's survival C-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI: 0.72-0.89) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.68-0.87) in both samples. Calibration was also good. Very similar results were obtained with RECODe, an alternative prediction model of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes. Conclusions In conclusion, our data show that two well-established prediction models of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes can also be successfully applied in the early stage of the disease, thus becoming powerful tools for educated and timely prevention strategies for high-risk patients.

引用

页码：1425 / 1428

页数：4

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