Synchronous pattern of fluctuation in three anchovy fisheries in the Humboldt Current System

Interdecadal versus interannual time- scale variations of catch data of three anchovy fisheries distributed in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) were analyzed during the period 1960-2002, by using first a loess smoother. The loess residual data were considered as the interannual variation. Interdecadal changes were highly coherent for the three fisheries of anchovy distributed in the HCS, while there were differences in terms of interannual variations. The north-central Peru fishery was similar to the south Peru-northern Chile fishery in terms of the interannual component of fluctuation of these fisheries which was significantly and negatively related with El Nino-Southern Oscillations events occurring during the spring of the previous year. Interdecadal synchronous variations in the three anchovy fisheries suggest a common forcing by long-term environmental factors in the HCS, although other causes cannot be excluded. During the last 40 years, coherent changes in anchovy fisheries were observed, and this synchronous pattern is out of phase with large-amplitude sardine regimes. Long-term climate variability seems to be the main cause for interdecadal fluctuations in anchovy fisheries in the HCS, although available time series are too short to prove this link and exclude the hypothesis of nonenvironmental forcing. Large-amplitude regime shifts may be more important to consider than interannual changes since they can affect simultaneously and more dramatically the three anchovy fisheries distributed in the Humboldt Current System.