A Multi-State Model for Transmission System Resilience Enhancement Against Short-Circuit Faults Caused by Extreme Weather Events

Due to global climate change, the effect of extreme weather on power systems has attracted extensive attention. In the prior-art grid resilience studies, the hurricanes or wildfires are mainly defended in terms of expected line damages, while they are prone to trigger short-circuit fault (SCF) evolved with dynamic influence in reality. In this paper, a fragile model is developed to evaluate the nodal SCF probability considering the insulation aging of equipment and extreme weather condition. Then, a response framework for extreme weather events is developed for a transmission system to defend the cascading impacts of expected SCFs. Specifically, switches are shifted to restrain the out-of-range short-circuit currents (SCCs) so that to ensure the SCFs can be removed by circuit breakers, generation rescheduling and load shedding are arranged to maintain the post-fault system transient stability. The above measures are optimized simultaneously by an integrated Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP). Considering the error or uncertainty of weather event forecasts, a multi-state model is established to provide the most cost-effective grid resilience enhancement scheme, in which the expected urgent adaptions of the initial scheme subject to weather state transition is included in the overall cost. The proposed model and techniques are validated using the IEEE 39-bus New-England test system and realistic meteorological data.