Choice of reliability, resilience and vulnerability estimators for risk assessments of water resources systems

被引:134
作者
Kjeldsen, TR [1 ]
Rosbjerg, D [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Denmark, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark
来源
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | 2004年 / 49卷 / 05期
关键词
reliability; resilience; vulnerability; reservoirs;
D O I
10.1623/hysj.49.5.755.55136
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
Definitions and estimators of water resources system reliability (the probability that the system will remain in a non-failure state), resilience (the ability of the system to return to non-failure state after a failure has occurred) and vulnerability (the likely damage of a failure event) have been thoroughly investigated. A behaviour analysis addressing monotonic behaviour, overlap and correlation between the estimators was carried out by routing time series of monthly runoff through a reservoir with a specified storage volume that is operated according to a fixed operation policy. Estimation based on historical time series is shown to be problematic and a procedure encompassing generation of synthetic time series with a length of at least 1000 years is recommended in order to stabilize the estimates. Moreover, the strong correlation between resilience and vulnerability may suggest that resilience should not be explicitly accounted for.
引用
收藏
页码:755 / 767
页数:13
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