Spatiotemporal Effects and Driving Factors of Water Pollutants Discharge in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The problem of water pollution is a social issue in China requiring immediate and urgent solutions. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the contradiction between preserving the ecological environment and facilitating sustainable economic development is particularly acute. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of water pollutants and their factors of influence using statistics on the discharge of two water pollutants, namely chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH3-N (ammonia nitrogen), in 154 counties in both 2012 and 2016 as research units in the region. The study employed Exploratory Spatial-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA), Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE), and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models, as well as ArcGIS and GeoDa software, obtaining the following conclusions: (1) From 2012 to 2016, pollutant discharge dropped significantly, with COD and NH3-N emissions decreasing 65.9% and 47.2%, respectively; the pollutant emissions possessed the spatial feature of gradual gradient descent from the central districts to the periphery. (2) The water pollutants discharge displayed significant and positive spatial correlations. The spatiotemporal cohesion of the spatiotemporal evolution of the pollutants was higher than their spatiotemporal fluidity, representing strong spatial locking. (3) The level of economic development, the level of urbanization, and the intensity of agricultural production input significantly and positively drove pollutant discharge; the environmental regulations had a significant effect on reducing the emission of pollutants. In particular, the effect for NH3-N emissions reduction was stronger; the driving effect of the industrial structure and the distance decay was not significant.