Estimating a Risk-Integrated Schedule Delay for an Office Building Renovation Project by Considering the Project's Attributes

Despite frequent reports of work delays in renovation projects due to inherent characteristics, such as difficulties in diagnosing the status of existing buildings, studies addressing this issue are lacking. Therefore, this study aims to develop a new method to predict the delay probabilities of renovations according to the attributes of the renovation projects. To achieve this objective, with focus on the inherent factors of renovation projects, two core concepts are established: (1) risk probability according to project attribute; and (2) delay probability for renovation depending on risk probability. By performing case studies on four actual projects, the probabilities of risk factors for each project were confirmed based on project attributes; furthermore, delay probabilities for the renovations of each project were accurately estimated. Thus, this research is expected to assist real estate investors in selecting potential buildings for investment by considering inherent risk factors and delay probabilities owing to renovations.