A population model of diabetes and pre-diabetes

The incidence and prevalence of diabetes are increasing all over the world. Complications of diabetes constitute a burden for individuals and the whole of society. In the present paper, ordinary differential equations and numerical approximations are used to monitor the size of populations of pre-diabetes, and diabetes with and without complications. Different scenarios are discussed according to a set of parameters, and the dynamical evolution of the population from the stage of diabetes to the stage of diabetes with complications is illustrated. The model shows how efficient and cost-effective strategies can be obtained by acting on the incidence of pre-diabetes and/or controlling the evolution to the stages of diabetes without and with complications.