Asymmetric effects of premature deagriculturalization on economic growth and CO2 emissions: fresh evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the relationship between deagriculturalization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan from the period 1975 to 2018 by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality approach. The asymmetric ARDL findings show that there is a significant negative relationship between agriculturalization and economic growth, while deagriculturalization does not induce economic growth in the long run in Pakistan. Moreover, agriculturalization and deagriculturalization have a negative significant effect on Pakistan's carbon emissions in the long run. This study concludes that the asymmetric results deviate from symmetric results in Pakistan. The asymmetric causality test shows unidirectional asymmetric causality running from agriculturalization, deagriculturalization, and CO2 emissions. Moreover, agriculturalization and deagriculturalization do not Granger cause economic growth in Pakistan. Based on the results, the study stressed to formulate such policies which support economic growth and lower carbon emissions through reforming agriculture sector practices. These outcomes are very useful for Pakistan to formulate relevant policies.