Sea water level forecasting using genetic programming and comparing the performance with Artificial Neural Networks

Water level forecasting at various time intervals using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. In the last 20 years, emerging approaches over the conventional harmonic analysis techniques are based on using Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In the present study, the GP is used to forecast sea level variations, three time steps ahead, for a set of time intervals comprising 12 h, 24 h, 5 day and 10 day time intervals using observed sea levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Hillarys Boat Harbor, Western Australia, were used to train and validate the employed GP for the period from December 1991 to December 2002. Statistical parameters, namely, the root mean square error, correlation coefficient and scatter index, are used to measure their performances. These were compared with a corresponding set of published results using an Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies perform satisfactorily and may be considered as alternatives to the harmonic analysis. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.