Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

被引：135

作者：

Saad-Roy, Chadi M. ^{[1
]}

Morris, Sinead E. ^{[2
]}

Metcalf, C. Jessica E. ^{[3
,4
]}

Mina, Michael J. ^{[5
]}

Baker, Rachel E. ^{[3
,6
]}

Farrar, Jeremy ^{[7
]}

Holmes, Edward C. ^{[8
,9
]}

Pybus, Oliver G. ^{[10
]}

Graham, Andrea L. ^{[3
]}

Levin, Simon A. ^{[3
]}

Grenfell, Bryan T. ^{[3
,4
,11
]}

Wagner, Caroline E. ^{[12
]}

机构：

[1] Princeton Univ, Lewis Sigler Inst Integrat Genom, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[2] Columbia Univ, Dept Pathol & Cell Biol, Med Ctr, New York, NY 10032 USA

[3] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[4] Princeton Univ, Princeton Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[5] Harvard Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Immunol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[6] Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[7] Wellcome Trust Res Labs, London NW1 2BE, England

[8] Univ Sydney, Marie Bashir Inst Infect Dis & Biosecur, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

[9] Univ Sydney, Sch Med Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

[10] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3SZ, England

[11] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[12] McGill Univ, Dept Bioengn, Montreal, PQ H3A 0C3, Canada

来源：

SCIENCE | 2021年 / 372卷 / 6540期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

DYNAMICS; HETEROGENEITY; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.abg8663

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery of the second dose will affect infection dynamics and how it will affect prospects for the evolution of viral immune escape via a buildup of partially immune individuals. Both hinge on the robustness of the immune response elicited by a single dose as compared with natural and two-dose immunity. Building on an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in the short term, focusing on one dose generally decreases infections, but that longer-term outcomes depend on this relative immune robustness. We then explore three scenarios of selection and find that a one-dose policy may increase the potential for antigenic evolution under certain conditions of partial population immunity. We highlight the critical need to test viral loads and quantify immune responses after one vaccine dose and to ramp up vaccination efforts globally.

引用

页码：363 / 370

页数：8

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