Predictive Value of Bowel Ultrasound in Crohn's Disease: A 12-Month Prospective Study

Background & Aims: Mucosal healing is associated with better outcomes in Crohn's disease (CD). Colonoscopy is invasive and poorly tolerated. Bowel ultrasound (US) is a noninvasive tool that increasingly is being used for CD assessment. We assessed the predictive role of baseline bowel US findings on disease course in a large prospective cohort of CD patients for 12 months. Methods: Ileocolonic CD consecutive patients were followed up for 12 months after performing bowel US. The negative course of CD, defined as the need for steroids and/or change of therapy and/or hospitalization and/or the need for surgery, was assessed. We evaluated this composite end point and subsequently considered each individual end point separately. Predictors of negative disease course were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. Results: There were 225 ileal and/or colonic CD consecutive patients included in the study. We analyzed the association between baseline bowel US parameters and endoscopic activity (defined as a Simplified Endoscopic Activity score for CD > 2) to set up a noninvasive quantitative ultrasound-based score (bowel ultrasound score). The multivariable analysis identified the following independent predictors of a worse outcome throughout the 12-month period as follows: bowel ultrasound score greater than 3.52 (odds ratio [OR], 6.97; 95% CI, 2.87-16.93; P < .001), presence of at least 1 disease complication (stricture, fistula, abscess) at baseline bowel US (OR, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.21-12.53; P = .021), fecal calprotectin value of 250 mu g/g or greater at baseline (OR, 5.43; 95% CI, 2.25-13.11; P < .001), and male sex (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.12-6.02; P = .025). Conclusions: Bowel US predicts the 12-month course in CD.