A selection of time series models for short- to medium-term wind power forecasting

In this paper we investigate the short- to medium-term prediction performance of several recent wind power forecasting models. In particular, we analyze the Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT), which is a successfully employed model in Denmark, its generalization (GWPPT, generalized WPPT), an adaptation of the Mycielski approach, a nonparametric regression model and several univariate time series benchmarks. In the longer forecasting horizon scenario, GWPPT performs best, while the time series models are still strong competitors in the short-term setup. Our findings are in line with the majority of the literature. They support the results by Croonenbroeck and Dahl (2014). The Mycielski approach is a successfully employed wind speed forecaster and usually returns well results. However, its performance as a wind power forecasting model is somewhat limited, showing that the adaptation to this new operational area leaves an opportunity for additional work in the future. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.