Consistent Extinction Risk Assessment under the US Endangered Species Act

被引：12

作者：

Boyd, Charlotte ^{[1
,2
]}

DeMaster, Douglas P. ^{[3
]}

Waples, Robin S. ^{[4
]}

Ward, Eric J. ^{[4
]}

Taylor, Barbara L. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Southwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, 8901 la Jolla Shores Dr, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA

[2] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, 9500 Gilman Dr, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[3] Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA

[4] Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Northwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, 2725 Montlake Blvd East, Seattle, WA 98112 USA

来源：

CONSERVATION LETTERS | 2017年 / 10卷 / 03期

关键词：

Bayesian state-space population model; conservation prioritization; listing criteria; population viability analysis; risk analysis; threatened species; POPULATION VIABILITY; MANAGEMENT; CRITERIA; MODELS; RULES; LIST;

D O I：

10.1111/conl.12269

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Identifying species at risk of extinction is essential for effective conservation priority-setting in the face of accelerating biodiversity loss. However, the levels of risk that lead to endangered or threatened listing decisions under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) are not well defined. We used a Bayesian population modeling approach to estimate levels of risk consistently for 14 marine species previously assessed under the ESA. For each species, we assessed the risks of declining below various abundance thresholds over various time horizons. We found that high risks of declining below 250 mature individuals within five generations matched well with ESA endangered status, while number of populations was useful for distinguishing between threatened and "not warranted" species. The risk assessment framework developed here could enable more consistent, predictable, and transparent ESA status assessments in the future.

引用

页码：328 / 336

页数：9