The Energy Spectrum of the Seismic Process in Application to Long-Term Earthquake Prediction and Intermediate- and Short-Term Updating of Earthquake Hazard

This paper is an analysis of the seismic process in the source zones of great (M similar to 8) earthquakes occurring at the Pacific seismic belt and in Southeast Asia. We sought to enhance data homogeneity for different seismic regions by proposing the concept of a generalized energy class of earthquakes. The concept is a promising alternative to the existing procedure for the energy classification of earthquakes. We consider one important characteristic of the source zone of a great earthquake, namely, the energy spectrum of the seismic process; the Gutenberg-Richter law is generally treated as a first approximation to this concept. We have proposed a method for the study of the concept, have identified a significant peaking growth of the slope of the recurrence curve for the period between 5 and 10 years before a great event and a decrease immediately before it. These peaking anomalies are hypothesized to repeat themselves and to be quasi-periodic in character, with the periods of their occurrence prior to a great earthquake being arguably different in different regions. The results of this study can be used both to enhance the reliability of long-term earthquake prediction and for intermediate-term and short-term updating of earthquake hazard.