Factors predicting decline in renal function and kidney volume growth in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study (Japanese Polycystic Kidney Disease registry: J-PKD)

Background Factors affecting decline in renal function and cyst growth in patients with autosomal polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) are not fully described, particularly in Japan. Methods This was the first multi-facility, prospective, observational cohort study conducted in ADPKD patients at 14 centers in Japan. Patients in the J-PKD registry were assessed from December 2009 to June 2012 (follow-up until June 2017). Patients' data including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and total kidney volume (TKV) were assessed initially and a maximum of five times annually. Contributing factors to eGFR decline and TKV growth were identified using multiple linear regression analysis. Results Of the 340 patients in the J-PKD registry, data analysis was performed for 192 patients in whom serial changes for both eGFR and TKV were obtained. eGFR slope, eGFR change, and TKV change values were as follows: - 2.7 (- 4.2 to - 1.5) (ml/min/1.73 m(2)/year), - 5.0 (- 9.6 to - 2.3) (%/year), and 4.78 (0.86-8.22) (%/year), respectively. Lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was an independent predictor of eGFR decline, using both eGFR slope and change (P = 0.04, P = 0.02, respectively), whereas lower hemoglobin and higher uric acid were significantly associated with greater eGFR change only (P = 0.02, P = 0.002, respectively). Younger age and higher fasting blood sugar were independent predictors of greater TKV change (P = 0.01, P = 0.02, respectively). Conclusions This real-world study in Japan identified risk factors for renal function decline in ADPKD patients. These included lower HDL cholesterol, lower hemoglobin and higher uric acid for eGFR decline, and youth and higher blood sugar levels for TKV growth.