Room at the top? Minority mobility and the transition to demographic diversity in the USA

We examine the ramifications of the demographic transition to diversity in the USA through an analysis of changes at the top of the occupational hierarchy, as glimpsed in recent census data. We find evidence that, among the incumbents of better-paid occupations, the percentage of non-Hispanic whites, the historically dominant majority, is sharply declining, while the proportion of immigrant-origin minorities, Asians, both foreign and US born, and US-born Hispanics, is growing. African Americans, or US-born blacks, are not so far sharing much in this growth. However, whites still retain important advantages in terms of occupational placement net of education and in terms of earnings net of occupational placement. We conclude overall that demographic shifts are highly likely to drive further diversification at the top of the US workforce; the question of whether whites can hold on to their advantages in the face of these changes cannot be answered yet.