Analyzing travel time belief reliability in road network under uncertain random environment

The reliable operation of urban road traffic is the vision of urban development. The reliability measurement method with travel time as a performance index is the starting point of this study. Based on the travel time data, we have studied the shortcomings of existing travel time reliability indicators. Most of them simplify or even ignore the information of traffic performance thresholds. According to the characteristics of the actual urban road network, we proposed measurement of travel time reliability under uncertain random environment, that is, the travel time belief reliability. By extracting the information of traffic service subject and object, this method takes into account the influence of cognitive and random uncertainty on reliability. Next, we established the belief reliability model of travel task under the uncertain random road environment. The model considers the route selection, departure status and road conditions and gives the route selection algorithm under a time-varying road network. In addition, the impact of road objective factors and driving state factors on the travel time threshold is discussed by using the uncertainty regression analysis method. Finally, we took the actual travel task in Beijing as an example to verify the feasibility and practicability of the model and algorithm.