PROJECTION OF FUTURE TEMPERATURE OVER THE HAIHE RIVER BAIN, CHINA BASED ON CMIP5 MODELS

The future climate change information plays key role for planning adaptation and mitigation strategy. In this study, the combination of the widely employed statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and two CMIP5 models, namely MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5, was used to generate the future projection of maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) under RCP8.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios within a period of 2011 to 2100 over the Haihe Basin. The historical ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during 1971 similar to 2000 was employed to calibrate the SDSM models. Results showed that:(1) The SDSM model had a good ability to reproduce the daily and monthly mean Tmax and Tmin in the basin; (2) For the historical reproduction of Tmax and Tmin, the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean Tmax and Tmin under the two scenarios for all evaluation periods will increase and magnitude of Tmax will be higher than Tmin. (4) The increase in magnitude for the weather stations in the mountains and along the coastline will be remarkably obvious. (5) The future annual Tmax and Tmin will keep a significant upward trend under RCP8.5 scenarios over the whole projection period and the magnitude will be 0.37 degrees C and 0.39 degrees C per decade, respectively; the future annual Tmax and Tmin will increase in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 degrees C and 0.01 degrees C per decade, respectively. The related results could provide an insight into the mitigation measure for adverse effect of future climate change on the regional ecological environment.