The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points

被引:3
作者
Hall, Alastair R. [1 ]
Osborn, Denise R. [1 ,2 ]
Sakkas, Nikolaos [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Manchester, Sch Social Sci, Econ, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
[2] Univ Tasmania, Tasmanian Sch Business & Econ, Hobart, Tas, Australia
[3] Univ Bath, Dept Econ, Bath, Avon, England
关键词
Linear models; nonlinear models; ordinary least squares; parameter change; two-stage least squares; US monetary policy; STRUCTURAL-CHANGE MODELS; US MONETARY-POLICY; MACROECONOMIC STABILITY; INFORMATION CRITERIA; REGRESSION-MODELS; CONFIDENCE SETS; LINEAR-MODELS; LEAST-SQUARES; INFERENCE;
D O I
10.1080/07474938.2017.1307523
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Models with multiple discrete breaks in parameters are usually estimated via least squares. This paper, first, derives the asymptotic expectation of the residual sum of squares and shows that the number of estimated break points and the number of regression parameters affect the expectation differently. Second, we propose a statistic for testing the joint hypothesis that the breaks occur at specified points in the sample. Our analytical results cover models estimated by the ordinary, nonlinear, and two-stage least squares. An application to U.S. monetary policy rejects the assumption that breaks are associated with changes in the chair of the Fed.
引用
收藏
页码:667 / 698
页数:32
相关论文
共 36 条
[1]   Recent US macroeconomic stability: Good policies, good practices, or good luck? [J].
Ahmed, S ;
Levin, A ;
Wilson, BA .
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, 2004, 86 (03) :824-832
[2]  
Amemiya T., 1985, Advanced Econometrics
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2001, ASYMPTOTIC THEORY EC
[4]  
Antoine B., 2016, EFFICIENT INFERENCE
[5]   Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models [J].
Bai, J ;
Perron, P .
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, 2003, 18 (01) :1-22
[7]  
Bai J., 2006, Econom. Theory Pract. Front. Anal. Appl. Res., DOI [10.1017/CBO9781139164863.010, DOI 10.1017/CBO9781139164863.010, DOI 10.1017/CBO9781139164863]
[8]   Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes [J].
Bai, JS ;
Perron, P .
ECONOMETRICA, 1998, 66 (01) :47-78
[9]   Has monetary policy become more effective? [J].
Boivin, Jean ;
Giannoni, Marc P. .
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, 2006, 88 (03) :445-462
[10]   Has US monetary policy changed? Evidence from drifting coefficients and real-time data [J].
Boivin, Jean .
JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, 2006, 38 (05) :1149-1173