The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics

被引：2
作者：
Dimeglio, Chloe [1 ,2 ]
Loubes, Jean-Michel [3 ]
Miedouge, Marcel [2 ]
Herin, Fabrice [4 ]
Soulat, Jean-Marc [4 ]
Izopet, Jacques [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Toulouse Inst Infect & Inflammatory Dis INFINITy, 2 INSERM UMR1291, CNRS UMR5051, F-31300 Toulouse, France
[2] CHU Toulouse, Hop Purpan, Virol Lab, F-31300 Toulouse, France
[3] Univ Toulouse, Inst Math Toulouse, F-31400 Toulouse, France
[4] Toulouse Purpan Univ Hosp, Occupat Dis Dept, F-31000 Toulouse, France
来源：
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2021年 / 11卷 / 01期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1038/s41598-021-92131-0
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient's symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution.
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页数：5
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