Partial decomposition approach to generate load curve forecasting scenarios

Detailed information about hourly load has always been considered essential when the subject is meeting the energy demand. Thus, in order to propose a support tool to the Brazilian energy market, this work presents a Scenarios Generation Framework. Such procedure uses bottom-up approach as an annual demand projection provider. The Specific Profile Generation Method is used as a way to overcome the lack of hourly data in Brazil. Not only that, Partial Decomposition Approach, a well-known methodology is used to adapt annual load demand into hourly load curves, closing all existing gaps of other methodologies. Finalizing the Scenarios Generation Framework, Monte Carlo simulation is applied over different obtained results and confidence intervals indicate the possible values of load behavior in the future, thus turning a deterministic forecasting method into a scenarios generation framework. In order to check the results, the Framework is applied and validated using the southeast Brazilian region, developing consistent scenarios which were able to keep relevant historical behavior, at the same time it inset projected behavior changes on the demand.