The tale of two countries: modeling the effects of COVID-19 on shopping behavior in Bangladesh and India

This paper explores the impact of COVID-19 on shopping behavior in two neighboring developing economies: Bangladesh and India. While the previous studies investigating the impact of COVID-19 on shopping behavior have relied on Revealed Preference (RP) data, this paper combines RP and Stated Preference (SP) data to develop joint RP-SP discrete choice models. This makes it possible to quantify the relative impact of the situational contexts on the choice of shopping modes of households and to capture the associated heterogeneity arising from the characteristics of the households. Further, comparison of the data and the estimated model parameters of the two countries with substantial socio-cultural similarities provide insights about how differences in the state of e-commerce can lead to different levels of inertia in continuing the pre-COVID behavior. The results will be useful to planners and policymakers for predicting the shopping modes in different future scenarios and formulating effective restriction measures.