Estimating probability of fatigue failure of steel structures

The article deals with the analysis of failure probability of the effect of random factors influencing fatigue crack propagation in a steel element under bending moment. The theoretical model of fatigue crack progression is based on linear fracture mechanics. When determining the required degree of failure probability, it is possible to specify the time of the first inspection of the construction, which will focus on the fatigue damage. Using a conditional probability, subsequent inspection times are specified. The failure probability is examined using a fairly new sensitivity analysis subordinated to a contrast. The importance ranking of the input random variables to the failure probability is investigated. Fatigue properties of steel are taken from recent experimental research. Numerical results are obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation.