Early prediction of transition to durable mechanical circulatory support in patients undergoing peripheral veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for critical cardiogenic shock

Peripheral veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (pVA-ECMO) has gained increasing value in the management of patients with critical cardiogenic shock (cCS), allowing time for myocardial recovery. Failure of myocardial recovery has life-altering consequences: transition to durable mechanical circulatory support (dMCS), urgent heart transplantation, or withdrawal of support. Clinical factors controlling myocardial recovery under these circumstances remain largely unknown. Using a retrospective cohort, we developed a model for early prediction of transition to dMCS in patients undergoing pVA-ECMO for cCS. To promote myocardial recovery, our clinical management centered around left ventricular pressure unloading, that is, targeting pulmonary capillary wedge pressures (PCWP) <= 18 mm Hg. We collected demographic data, laboratory findings, inotrope use, and two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiography measurements, all limited to the first 72h of pVA-ECMO (D1-3). Out of 70 patients who were alive after pVA-ECMO, 27 patients underwent implantation of dMCS. There was no significant difference in survival to hospital discharge between patients with or without transition to dMCS. Ejection fraction(D1-3) (per 10% increase, OR 0.37 [0.17-0.79]) and amount of inotropic support(D1-3) (OR 4.77 [1.6-14.18]) but neither myocardial wall tension nor PCWP emerged as significant predictors of transition to dMCS. Optimism-corrected c-index (0.90 [0.89-0.90]) revealed an excellent discriminative ability of our model. In summary, our model for early prediction of transition to dMCS in patients with cCS undergoing pVA-ECMO identifies indicators of inotropic state as relevant factors. Absence of markers for myocardial oxygen consumption or left ventricular pressure loading allows us to hypothesize sufficient cardiac unloading in our cohort with PCWP-targeted management.