Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process

被引：276
作者：
Belton, Ian [1 ]
MacDonald, Alice [1 ]
Wright, George [1 ]
Hamlin, Iain [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
来源：
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2019年 / 147卷
关键词：
Delphi; Review; Methodology; Judgment; Expert; Consensus; REAL-TIME DELPHI; TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT; RESPONSE CATEGORIES; OPTIMAL NUMBER; POLICY DELPHI; NOMINAL GROUP; CONSENSUS; FUTURE; CRITERIA; RELIABILITY;
D O I：
10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper provides a practical, systematic approach to the design and delivery of a Delphi survey. We prescribe a sequence of six steps to do with (i) setting up the Delphi process - including selecting respondents and generating a requisite number of focal issues, (ii) software/delivery choice, (iii) developing question items and response scales, (iv) providing feedback between a requisite number of Delphi rounds, (v) preventing and dealing with panellist drop out, and (vi) analysing and presenting the Delphi yield. At each step, the Delphi administrator has a range of choice options and we provide discussion of the pros and cons of each option - in order that the overall design and delivery of a particular Delphi survey is both well-founded and defensible.
引用
收藏
页码：72 / 82
页数：11
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