Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector

被引:59
作者
Cinar, Didem [1 ]
Kayakutlu, Gulgun [1 ]
机构
[1] Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Ind Engn, TR-34367 Istanbul, Turkey
关键词
Bayesian networks; Causal maps; Scenario analysis; Energy investments; DECISION-SUPPORT; FUTURE-DEVELOPMENTS; COGNITIVE MAPS; TURKEY; IDENTIFICATION; PERFORMANCE; POLICY; ISSUES; AGENT;
D O I
10.1016/j.knosys.2010.01.009
中图分类号
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要
This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码:267 / 276
页数:10
相关论文
共 48 条
[1]   Energy allocations for cooking in UP households (India) - A fuzzy multi-objective analysis [J].
Agrawal, RK ;
Singh, SP .
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT, 2001, 42 (18) :2139-2154
[2]  
Aktasa E., 2007, SOCIO-ECON PLAN SCI, V41, P130, DOI [10.1016/j.seps.2005.10.008, DOI 10.1016/J.SEPS.2005.10.008]
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2004, Introduction to Machine Learning
[4]   Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies [J].
Asif, M. ;
Muneer, T. .
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2007, 11 (07) :1388-1413
[5]   Constructing Bayesian networks for criminal profiling from limited data [J].
Baumgartner, K. ;
Ferrari, S. ;
Palermo, G. .
KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, 2008, 21 (07) :563-572
[6]  
Bowerman B., 2005, Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression: An Applied Approach
[7]   Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties [J].
Cai, Y. P. ;
Huang, G. H. ;
Yang, Z. F. ;
Tan, Q. .
APPLIED ENERGY, 2009, 86 (04) :480-495
[8]  
CHANGLIANG X, 2009, RENEW SUST ENERG REV, P1966
[9]   Multicriteria evaluation of power plants impact on the living standard using the analytic hierarchy process [J].
Chatzimouratidis, Athanasios I. ;
Pilavachi, Petros A. .
ENERGY POLICY, 2008, 36 (03) :1074-1089
[10]   A selective Bayes Classifier for classifying incomplete data based on gain ratio [J].
Chen, Jingnian ;
Huang, Houkuan ;
Tian, Fengzhan ;
Tian, Shengfeng .
KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, 2008, 21 (07) :530-534