Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the symmetric case

被引:11
|
作者
Hammond, PJ [1 ]
Sun, Y
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[2] Natl Univ Singapore, Inst Math Sci, Singapore 118402, Singapore
[3] Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Math, Singapore 118402, Singapore
[4] Natl Univ Singapore, Ctr Financial Engn, Singapore 118402, Singapore
关键词
large economy; continuum of agents; law of large numbers; exchangeability; joint measurability problem; de Finetti's theorem; Monte Carlo convergence; Monte Carlo sigma-algebra;
D O I
10.1007/s00199-002-0302-y
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Suppose a large economy with individual risk is modeled by a continuum of pairwise exchangeable random variables (i.i.d., in particular). Then the relevant stochastic process is jointly measurable only in degenerate cases. Yet in Monte Carlo simulation, the average of a large finite draw of the random variables converges almost surely. Several necessary and sufficient conditions for such "Monte Carlo convergence" are given. Also, conditioned on the associated Monte Carlo sigma-algebra, which represents macroeconomic risk, individual agents' random shocks are independent. Furthermore, a converse to one version of the classical law of large numbers is proved.
引用
收藏
页码:743 / 766
页数:24
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