Effects of winter climate on delays of high speed passenger trains in Botnia-Atlantica region

Harsh winter climate can cause various problems for both public and private sectors in Sweden, especially in the northern part for railway industry. To have a better understanding of winter climate impacts, this study investigates effects of the winter climate including ice/snow precipitation on the performance of high speed passenger trains in the Botnia-Atlantica region. The investigation is done with train operational data together with simulated weather data from the Weather Research and Forecast model over January-February 2017. Two different measurements of the train performance are analysed. One is primary delay which measures the increment in delay in terms of running time within two consecutive measuring spots, the other is arrival delay which is the delay in terms of arrival time at each measuring spot compared to the schedule. Primary delay is investigated through a Cox model and the arrival delay is studied using a Markov chain model. The results show that the weather variables have impacts on the train performance. Therein temperature and humidity have significant impacts on both the occurrence of primary delay and the transition intensities between arrival delay and non-delay.