Tailored vs black-box models for forecasting hourly average solar irradiance

被引：16

作者：

Brabec, Marek ^{[1
]}

Paulescu, Marius ^{[2
]}

Badescu, Viorel ^{[3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Acad Sci Czech Republ, Dept Nonlinear Modeling, Inst Comp Sci, Prague 18207 8, Czech Republic

[2] West Univ Timisoara, Dept Phys, Timisoara 300223, Romania

[3] Univ Politehn Bucuresti, Candida Oancea Inst, Bucharest 060042, Romania

[4] Romanian Acad, Bucharest, Romania

来源：

SOLAR ENERGY | 2015年 / 111卷

关键词：

Solar irradiance; Forecasting; Tailored statistical models; TIME-SERIES; RADIATION; VARIANCE; CLIMATE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.solener.2014.11.003

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Accurate prediction of solar radiation is of high importance for proper operation of the electrical grid. Over short horizons, forecasting solar irradiance is often performed by extrapolation of field measurements. Four tailored statistical models for forecasting hourly average solar irradiance are proposed and assessed in this paper. These follow from the well-known regression and ARIMA class of models, but bring into the model formulation various physically motivated additional features. These capture the distribution of solar radiation more effectively. Their performance is compared with the performance of a standard model used in the strictly black-box style often encountered in practice. Overall results demonstrate that the proposed models are significantly more accurate than the standard model, under conditions of mostly cloudy skies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：320 / 331

页数：12