Influence of seasonal and regional variation of ice properties on ship performance in the Arctic

The ongoing growth and digitalization of Arctic shipping strengthen the relevance of the models for ship performance prediction. Most of existing models consider ice thickness, total concentration, and other geometrical parameters of ice, while the change of ice flexural strength is usually neglected. This article aims at answering the question of how the flexural strength of level ice depends on the season and region of the Arctic, and on how this variation influences the ice performance of a ship. For this purpose, we developed a method to estimate the properties of ice of a given thickness based on the data on natural conditions in a certain region. Sensitivity analysis of this method showed that seasonal and regional changes in the flexural strength of ice could be predicted using the data on air temperature and seawater salinity. The available climatic data allowed us to analyze a spatiotemporal variability of these two parameters in the Russian Arctic. To predict the performance of constructed ships in ice, we developed a resistance scaling approach. Its accuracy was examined using full-scale data, ice tank tests, and numerical model results for 21900M-type icebreakers. This study concludes that variation of ice properties significantly affects ice performance of a ship and should be considered when simulating year-round navigation in the Arctic.