Different population size change and migration histories created genetic diversity of three oaks in Tokai region, central Japan

To understand genetic diversity in focal species, it is important to consider the possibility of speciation with gene flow, especially in species with porous genomes such as oaks. We studied genetic diversity and structure in three oaks, Quercus mongolica var. mongolicoides (QM), Q. mongolica var. crispula (QC) and Q. serrata (QS), growing in the Tokai region, central Japan. QM is semi-endemic to the region while the others are common taxa. We also conducted demographic modeling to infer their population size change and migration histories using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The three taxa showed distinct genetic structures but there was genetic admixture among the taxa, especially between QM and QC. ABC analysis of population size change revealed that the population size of QM was stable during and after the last glacial period, while QC and QS showed population expansion after the last glacial maximum. ABC analysis of population divergence and migration revealed that continuous gene flow between QM and QC after their divergence was supported, while between QM and QS, and between QC and QS, secondary contact after sufficient isolation was supported. These historical migration patterns among the three taxa indicate that QM and QC are currently in the early stage or gray zone of speciation, whereas speciation of the other two taxon pairs is considered to have almost been established. Observed gene flow patterns and strength between QM and QC, and between QM and QS, were explained by both flowering patterns and historical distributions, but those between QC and QS were not.