An analysis of sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems in China to climatic change using spatial simulation

A computer simulation model of regional vegetation dynamics was applied to the terrestrial ecosystems of China to study the responses of vegetation to elevated CO2 and global climatic change. The primary production processes were coupled with vegetation structure in the model. The model was parameterized and partially validated in light of a large number of field observations made throughout China on primary productivity, 10 years of monthly meteorological data, 5 years of monthly normalized differential vegetation index observed by NOAA-11 satellite, and digital vegetation and terrain maps. Eight different climatic scenarios, set by perturbations from the present climate, 100% in atmospheric CO2 concentration, 2 degreesC in monthly mean temperature, and 20% in monthly precipitation, were applied to analyze the sensitivity of the Chinese terrestrial ecosystems to climatic change. Simulation results were obtained for each of the climatic scenarios with the model running toward equilibrium solutions at a time step of 1 month. Preliminary validation indicated that the model was capable of simulating the net primary productivity of most vegetation classes and the potential vegetation structure in China under present climatic conditions. The simulations for the altered climatic scenarios predicted that grasslands, shrubs, and conifer forests are more sensitive to environmental changes than evergreen broadleaf forests in warm, wet southeast China and desert vegetation in cold, arid northwest China. For less than 150% of changes in vegetation structure under altered climatic conditions, about three quarters of the changes in net primary productivity of individual vegetation classes were shown to be attributed to the changes in the corresponding distribution area.