Sugarcane ethanol companies in Brazil: Growth challenges and strategy perspectives using Delphi and SWOT-AHP methods

The sugar-energy sector is crucial for Brazil to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, ratified in the country's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Due to exogenous and endogenous factors, this sector has recently experienced periods of low profitability, low growth and increasing indebtedness. The incentive policy called RenovaBio represents an opportunity to expand ethanol production, while electromobility and moderate gasoline prices appear as threats. The objective of this study is to identify challenges, opportunities, and the most adequate strategies and public policies for the main companies in the sector. The study proposes and applies a methodological framework that employs SWOT analysis associated with surveys (Delphi) and multicriteria assessment (AHP). The status and strategic profile of the top-30 sugar-ethanol companies in Brazil (representing 53% of the sugarcane nationally crushed and 20% of global exported sugar) is assessed. The survey with industry experts revealed that expansive strategies are preferred, such as promoting R&D and innovation. Therefore, the highly ranked public policies should support product diversification towards biofuels supplying hard-to-abate sectors, biomaterials, second-generation ethanol, and even disruptive conversion technologies, such as direct ethanol fuel cell2.