Dual Influence of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Spatiotemporal Vegetation Dynamics Over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau From 1981 to 2015

Climate change and human activities have already caused degradation in a large fraction of vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Many studies report that climate variability instead of overgrazing has been the primary cause for large-scale vegetation cover changes on the QTP, for example, Lehnert et al., 2016, . However, it remains unclear how human activities (mainly livestock grazing) regulate vegetation dynamics under climate change. This paper takes the AVHRR/GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator to analyze the growth status of vegetation zones in the QTP, which has highly sensitive to climate change. The spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation growth between 1981 and 2015 were analyzed. The dual effects of climate change and human activities were examined by correlation analyses of data from 87 meteorological stations and economic statistical data of the QTP. Results show that: (a) The vegetation in central and southwestern QTP with high altitudes was improving due to the warm-humid climate trend. An increase in temperature and a reduction in the harsh frigid climate at high altitudes due to global warming has resulted in expansions of the vegetated areas, with the NDVI showing a concordant increase. (b) The degraded areas were mainly confined to the northern and eastern QTP, which have high human and livestock population densities. In comparison to gently changing climate regimes, anthropogenic activities such as chronic concentration of population and livestock in the valleys with a less harsh climate exerts a much stronger pressure on vegetation. The study indicates that the anthropogenic pressures are much more intensive than the impact of climate change and are critical for the conservation and sustainable management of the QTP vegetation.