A prediction of the peak sunspot number for solar cycle 23

被引：24

作者：

Bounar, KH ^{[1
]}

Cliver, EW

Boriakoff, V

机构：

[1] Radex Inc, Bedford, MA 01730 USA

[2] USAF, Res Lab, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731 USA

[3] CNR, Washington, DC 20418 USA

来源：

SOLAR PHYSICS | 1997年 / 176卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1023/A:1004902905770

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

We use a precursor technique based on the geomagnetic aa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot number-of 158 (+/-18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minimum occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as those that require a year of data surrounding the geomagnetic minimum, which typically follows the smoothed sunspot minimum by about six months.

引用

页码：211 / 216

页数：6

共 23 条

[1] SOME PROPERTIES OF DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY OF SQ(H) [J].