Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network

Early-warning systems for natural disasters are important tools for disaster risk reduction and for achieving sustainable development and livelihoods. In 2005, the Japanese government initiated a new nationwide early-warning system for landslides disasters. The main methodology of the system is to set a criterion for occurrences of debris flows and slope failures based on several rainfall indices (60-min cumulative rainfall and soil-water index) in each 5-km grid mesh covering all of Japan. Because many of the records of mass movements are lacking in scientific precision on timing and location, the system applies Radial Basis Function Network methods to set the criterion based primarily on rainfall data recorded as not triggering disasters. Since the end of March 2007, under torrential rainfall conditions, early-warning information has been disseminated as part of weather news using TV, radio, and the Internet. Because of the increasing worldwide recognition of the importance of early-warning systems for natural disaster reduction, the aim of this article is to introduce the new Japanese early-warning system to the international landslide community. In this article, the method, the system, and the result of its application to landslide disasters in 2009 are presented.