Evaluation and projection of mean surface temperature using CMIP6 models over East Africa

被引:53
作者
Ayugi, Brian [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Ngoma, Hamida [2 ,4 ]
Babaousmail, Hassen [5 ]
Karim, Rizwan [2 ]
Iyakaremye, Vedaste [2 ,6 ]
Sian, Kenny T. C. Lim Kam [5 ]
Ongoma, Victor [7 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Atmospher Environm & Equip, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Jiangsu Key Lab Atmospher Environm Monitoring & P, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China
[2] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME,Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China
[3] Org African Acad Doctors OAAD, Off Kamiti Rd POB 25305-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
[4] Makerere Univ, Dept Geog Geoinformat & Climat Sci, POB 7062, Kampala, Uganda
[5] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Binjiang Coll, Wuxi, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[6] Rwanda Meteorol Agcy, Kigali, Rwanda
[7] Mohammed VI Polytech Univ, Int Water Res Inst, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Mean surface temperature; CMIP6; Evaluation; Projections; Climate change; East Africa; CONGO BASIN DEFORESTATION; GREATER HORN; CLIMATE EXTREMES; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; PRECIPITATION; VARIABILITY; RAINFALL; DROUGHT; IMPACT; 1.5-DEGREES-C;
D O I
10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2021.104226
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
This study evaluates the historical mean surface temperature (hereafter T2m) and examines how T2m changes over East Africa (EA) in the 21st century using CMIP6 models. An evaluation was conducted based on mean state, trends, and statistical metrics (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, and Taylor skill score). For projections over EA, five best performing CMIP6 models (based on their performance ranking in historical mean temperature simulations) under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were employed. The historical simulations reveal an overestimation of the mean annual T2m cycle over the study region with fewer models depicting underestimations. Further, CMIP6 models reproduce the spatial and temporal trends within the observed range proximity. Overall, the best performing models are as follows: FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1,andIPSL-CM6A-LR. During the three-time slices under consideration, the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) project many changes during the late period (2080-2100) with expected mean changes at 2.4 degrees C for SSP2-4.5 and 4.4 degrees C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The magnitude of change based on Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test reveal significant increasing tendencies with projections of 0.24 degrees C decade-1 (0.65.C decade-1) under SSP2-4.5(SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The findings from this study illustrate higher warming in the latest model outputs of CMIP6 relative to its predecessor, despite identical instantaneous radiative forcing.
引用
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页数:14
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